MontereyBreakwater

Breakwater San Carlos Beach

Monterey, Monterey Bay, California

Breakwater · Right now

Good

Waves at this site, 13 s swell:

  • Great under ~1.5 ft
  • Good to ~2.5 ft
  • Fair to ~3.5 ft
  • Rough to ~5 ft
  • Severe above ~5 ft
As of 4:00 PMConsistent through tonight

Sheltered from most west swell. Local wind chop on the surface.

Directions
High confidence

High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 30 min ago.

Updated 24 min ago

Buoy reading: 4:00 PM (54 min ago) at buoy 46236. Measured offshore waves; the current rating starts from it.

Forecast issued: Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT. NWS wind and air forecast for this spot; later hours also use the wave model run named under Advanced.

Page data: refreshed every 30 minutes; last refresh Wed, Oct 14, 4:30 PM PDT.

San Carlos Beach looking northwest along the sand toward the rocky point and Cannery Row
The beach entry. Photo: Amadscientist, CC BY-SA 3.0.

Right now

As of 4:00 PM
Waves
0.5ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
10kt
Cross-shore
Tide
3.6ft
Falling · 0.8 ft above predicted
Water 63°F harbor Air 63°F
All readings
  • Swells: 3 ft, 13 s WNW · 3 ft, 7 s WNW · Wind 10 kt cross-shore
  • Next low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft)
  • Next high tide 3:37 AM (3.6 ft)
  • Water temperature from the Monterey harbor tide station (NOAA 9413450); wind (including half the gust) and air from the NWS forecast for this hour.
Forecast limitations

The rating covers surge and entry conditions only.

  • Visibility Plankton, runoff and water stirred up for days after big seas aren't in the rating. A "Vis likely poor" note only warns when a known cause is present; it never promises clear water.
  • Depth On long-period days, surge on deeper reefs is stronger than at the entry.
  • On the day Sets, kelp and currents vary; look at the water before you go in.
  • Further out Accuracy drops the further out you look; days 6 and 7 are a rough guide.

Plan your dive

Today · Select a time

Day GoodAfter dark Good
Why Good?

About 0.9 ft of local wind chop makes the surface swim rough.

Swells: 3 ft, 13 s WNW · 3 ft, 7 s WNW · Wind 10 kt cross-shore

Rated by the most challenging conditions in the rest of today's daytime, to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading from the last hour.

This window has passed.

This window has passed.

Sheltered from most west swell. Local wind chop on the surface.

Waves
0.5ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
10kt
Cross-shore
Tide
2.7ft
 

Roughest around 4:30 PM

High confidence

High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 54 min ago.

Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.

Waves
0.5ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.5ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
5kt
Light
Tide
0.3ft
 

Low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM

High confidence

High confidence: This is a forecast about 4 hours ahead; recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit

Thu, Oct 15 · Select a time

Day GoodAfter dark Good
Why Good?

A modest northwest swell is mostly blocked by the Monterey Peninsula, so expect some surge near the wall.

Swells: 2 ft, 12 s WNW · 2 ft, 14 s SSW · 2 ft, 6 s WNW · Wind 8 kt cross-shore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 25 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. A light 8 kt cross-onshore breeze on the surface.

Waves
0.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.3ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
8kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.3ft
 

Roughest around 7 AM

Medium confidence

Medium confidence because this forecast is about 15 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. A light 9 kt cross-onshore breeze on the surface.

Waves
0.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.3ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
9kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
4.9ft
 

High tide 1:10 PM (5.1 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM

Medium confidence

Medium confidence because this forecast is about 20 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.5ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.3ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
8kt
Cross-shore
Tide
2.9ft
 

Roughest around 5 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 25 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.5ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.3ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
6kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
0.6ft
 

Low tide 9:11 PM (0.4 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 28 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit

Fri, Oct 16 · Select a time

Day GoodAfter dark Good
Why Good?

A modest northwest swell is mostly blocked by Point Pinos, so expect some surge near the wall.

Swells: 2 ft, 12 s WNW · 2 ft, 14 s SSW · Wind 6 kt light

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 45 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Local wind chop on the surface.

Waves
0.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.6ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
9kt
Cross-shore
Tide
3.5ft
 

Low tide 7:37 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 39 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.4ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
6kt
Light
Tide
4.7ft
 

High tide 1:58 PM (4.8 ft) · Roughest around 1 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 45 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.4ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
8kt
Cross-shore
Tide
4.2ft
 

Roughest around 4 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 48 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit

Sheltered from most south swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
1.9ft
SSW · 14 sec
Wind
5kt
Light
Tide
1.3ft
 

Low tide 10:14 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 52 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit

Sat, Oct 17 · Select a time

Day GoodAfter dark Good
Why Good?

A modest short-period northwest swell is mostly blocked by the Monterey Peninsula, so expect some surge near the wall.

Swells: 3 ft, 7 s WNW · 2 ft, 12 s WNW · 2 ft, 17 s SSW · Wind 10 kt cross-shore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 75 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.5ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
1.9ft
WNW · 6 sec
Wind
7kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.7ft
 

Low tide 9:03 AM (3.6 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 63 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Several factors near their limits at once.

Waves
0.6ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
5kt
Light
Tide
4ft
 

High tide 3:04 PM (4.5 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 68 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.8ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3.2ft
WNW · 7 sec
Wind
10kt
Cross-shore
Tide
2.7ft
 

Roughest around 7 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 75 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.9ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3.3ft
WNW · 7 sec
Wind
8kt
Cross-shore
Tide
2ft
 

Low tide 11:18 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 76 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit

Sun, Oct 18 · Select a time

Day FairAfter dark Fair
Why Fair?

A moderate northwest swell is mostly blocked by the Monterey Peninsula, so expect noticeable surge near the wall.

Swells: 6 ft, 12 s WNW · 2 ft, 16 s SSW · 1 ft, 12 s SSW · Wind 9 kt cross-shore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 92 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most west swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
1.1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3.8ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
7kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.6ft
 

High tide 7:17 AM (3.8 ft) · Low tide 11:05 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 10 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 90 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Noticeable surge near the wall.

Waves
1.1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
5.6ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
9kt
Cross-shore
Tide
3.6ft
 

Roughest around 12 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 92 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Noticeable surge near the wall.

Waves
1.2ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
5ft
WNW · 8 sec
Wind
16kt
Cross-shore
Tide
4.3ft
 

High tide 4:24 PM (4.4 ft) · Roughest around 5 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 97 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Noticeable surge near the wall.

Waves
1.1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
16kt
Cross-shore
Tide
2ft
 

Roughest around 9 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 101 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit

Mon, Oct 19 · Select a time

Day FairAfter dark Fair
Why Fair?

Wind and chop are both near their limits at once.

Swells: 5 ft, 12 s WNW · 2 ft, 15 s SSW · 0.9 ft, 18 s S · Wind 14 kt cross-onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Several factors near their limits at once.

Waves
0.9ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
5.2ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
14kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.9ft
 

High tide 7:44 AM (4 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Several factors near their limits at once.

Waves
0.8ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
4.9ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
17kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.2ft
 

Low tide 12:28 PM (3.2 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 116 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

21 kt cross-shore wind roughs up the surface. Sheltered from most northwest swell.

Waves
0.9ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
5.9ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
21kt
Cross-shore
Tide
4ft
 

High tide 5:41 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 120 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit

24 kt cross-shore wind roughs up the surface. Sheltered from most northwest swell.

Waves
1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
4.9ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
24kt
Cross-shore
Tide
2.7ft
 

Roughest around 9 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 125 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit

Tue, Oct 20 · Select a time

Day FairAfter dark Fair

No wind forecast yet for part of this day; those hours cover swell and tide only.

Why Fair?

16 kt onshore wind chops up the entry and the surface swim.

Swells: 3 ft, 6 s WNW · 3 ft, 11 s WNW · 2 ft, 15 s SSW · Wind 16 kt onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 136 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

16 kt onshore wind chops up the entry. Sheltered from most west swell.

Waves
0.6ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.9ft
WNW · 6 sec
Wind
16kt
Onshore
Tide
4.2ft
 

High tide 8:05 AM (4.2 ft) · Roughest around 8 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 136 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
0.8ft
Estimate
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
5.8ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
3ft
 

Low tide 1:23 PM (2.7 ft) · Roughest around 3 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 143 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible near the wall.

Waves
1ft
Estimate
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.4ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
4.2ft
 

High tide 6:47 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 6 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 146 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit

Sheltered from most northwest swell. Noticeable surge near the wall.

Waves
1.1ft
Estimate
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.6ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
4ft
 

Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 148 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit

Hourly outlook 7 days · tap any hourhold and drag the chart

Today
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
TodayThuFriSatSunMonTue012ftNow0.60.50.40.91.211.2overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue012ftNow0.60.50.40.91.211.2overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue02550ktNow10101011182420overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue02550ktNow10101011182420overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue036ftNow8:15 PM1:10 PM9:11 PM7:37 AM1:58 PM10:14 PM9:03 AM3:04 PM11:18 PM7:17 AM11:05 AM4:24 PM7:44 AM12:28 PM5:41 PM8:05 AM1:23 PMovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue036ftNow12:33 PM8:15 PM1:10 PM9:11 PM7:37 AM1:58 PM10:14 PM9:03 AM3:04 PM11:18 PM7:17 AM11:05 AM4:24 PM7:44 AM12:28 PM5:41 PM8:05 AM1:23 PMovernightovernight

After darkOvernight

Tap any hour for details.

Entry & parking

Shore entry
Map preview of Breakwater with the entry and parking marked
Map preview with entry and parking markers. Imagery: USGS/USDA NAIP, public domain.

Entry: Easy sandy beach entry at San Carlos Beach Park. Most dives follow the breakwater wall or head out over the sand toward the kelp.

Parking: Paid street parking and lots along Cannery Row and Foam Street. A dive shop, showers and food are right at the site.

Access: No permit needed.

Entry hazards

Boat traffic near the harbor mouth, so stay along the wall. Big swells still push surge into the shallows by the wall.

Route: Metridium Fields

From the pump house on the west side of San Carlos Beach, follow the big pipe out to its end (about 40 ft), then swim north about 10 yards to a field of white Metridium anemones on rocky outcrops (45 to 60 ft). It is a long swim, so watch your air and surface on the pipe or near shore, not out in the boat lane. Good buoyancy matters: don't land on the anemones.

Live cams & observations

Recent offshore observations · Buoy 46236

Wave height
4.3ft
Period
13s
Water
64°F
Wave height, last 12 h

Live cams

Randall Spangler's conditions guide · Monterey County Dive Reports

About this dive site

San Carlos Beach looking northwest along the sand toward the rocky point and Cannery Row
The beach entry. Photo: Amadscientist, CC BY-SA 3.0.

The diving

About 10 to 50 ft along the breakwater wall and out over sand and kelp.

Conditions & exposure

Only a narrow slice of northwest swell (about 311 to 325 degrees, between Point Pinos and Año Nuevo) reaches the Breakwater directly. The Monterey Peninsula blocks everything from the west and south; what gets in wraps around, and long-period swell wraps best.

Hazards & considerations

Good for new divers on calm days; the most forgiving entry in the area.

Advanced forecast & data

This site's forecast combines offshore wave data, predicted ocean conditions, and Breakwater's exposure to incoming swell.

Show the data and method

Buoy 46236, Monterey Canyon Outer: last 48 hours

Wave height4.3 ft
34.56Mon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Swell period (SwP)13.3 s
1013.517Mon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Swell directionWNW
NSNMon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Water temperature64 °F
6263.565Mon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Wind here, next 48 h (forecast)8 kt
57.510Wed 5:00 PMFri 4:00 PM
Tide, next 48 h (predicted)4.2 ft
036Wed 5:00 PMFri 4:00 PM

Swell trains now (buoy 46236 spectrum, 3:00 PM): 3 ft at 14 s from 284° (WNW) · wind waves 3 ft at 7 s. The rating still uses the buoy's single swell and wind-wave split; the full spectrum is being compared against it.

Forecast vs. buoy 46236

The raw GFS-Wave forecast is running about 0.7 ft low at buoy 46236 today (last 24 hours). The SurgeCast forecast corrects for it.

Wave height

0246810ftMonTueWedThuFriNowForecast0246810ftMonTueWedThuFriNowForecast

Peak period

48121620sMonTueWedThuFri48121620sMonTueWedThuFri

Buoy (measured)SurgeCast forecast (corrected)GFS-Wave (raw)Last 3 days and next 2

For comparison, the NWS marine grid ran 0.1 ft low over the same 24 hours. Low means the forecast was smaller than what the buoy measured; high means bigger.

Download the forecast-vs-buoy data (CSV) · NOAA's own spot-check (a handful of NOAA forecasts against this buoy; heights in meters; posted Tue, Oct 13)

Forecast check: The wave model is scaled by 1.12 at the Monterey Canyon Outer buoy (a starting estimate until 7 days of readings are logged). After that, over the last 36 hours the forecast has matched the Monterey Canyon Outer buoy well (69 readings compared).

Validation: Validation in progress: 69 forecast-and-buoy pairs so far since Tue, Oct 13. Accuracy numbers appear here once there are 100 pairs over at least 3 days.

Buoy split now: swell 3 ft at 13.3 s from the WNW, 12% reaches this site; wind waves 3 ft at 6.7 s from the WNW, 12% reaches this site.

View official NOAA forecast chart
NWPS forecast vs buoy 46236NOAA posted Tue, Oct 13, 3:52 AM PDT
NWPS forecast vs buoy 46236

Red dots: the buoy. Blue: the latest NWPS forecast; black and light blue: earlier runs. Green: the global GFS-Wave model. Times are UTC (subtract 7 hours for Pacific daylight time). View the full forecast at NOAA

Forecast models

Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model, run 18Z Wed, Oct 14 at buoy 46236, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.12, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). The rating uses each hour's waves, wind and tide. Wind and air temperature come from the NWS forecast for the water off Breakwater, issued Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT.

NWS marine forecast: Monterey Bay

Tonight: W wind around 5 kt, veering to NE late this evening and early morning, then becoming NE 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave Detail: NW 3 ft at 8 seconds and SW 2 ft at 15 seconds.

Thu: NE wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to NW in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wave Detail: W 3 ft at 7 seconds and SW 2 ft at 15 seconds.

Thu Night: NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave Detail: NW 2 ft at 7 seconds and SW 2 ft at 15 seconds.

Fri: NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wave Detail: W 2 ft at 11 seconds.

Issued Wed, Oct 14, 2:38 PM PDT

View official NOAA swell-systems chart
Swell systems at buoy 46236NOAA posted Tue, Oct 13, 12:00 AM PDT
Swell systems at buoy 46236

Each color is one swell system; arrow length shows its size. A band at 15 s and up means long-period swell and surge. Times are UTC. View the full forecast at NOAA

Rating logic

Surge
The rating turns each swell into a "surge index" in feet: the height that reaches this site, weighted up for longer periods because long swell moves the water harder near the bottom. Here the index moves from Great to Good at 0.8, Fair at 1.2, Rough at 1.6 and Severe at 2.2 ft. Right now it is 0.5 ft.
Direction
Only a narrow slice of northwest swell (about 311 to 325 degrees, between Point Pinos and Año Nuevo) reaches the Breakwater directly. The Monterey Peninsula blocks everything from the west and south; what gets in wraps around, and long-period swell wraps best.
Wind
Onshore wind here blows from the NNE. Onshore wind over about 10 kt chops up entries and surface swims; a strong offshore wind (over 15 kt) pushes surface swimmers out. Gusts count for half.
Tide
Heights at the Monterey tide station, in feet above mean lower low water. The entry is easiest between -0.5 and 6 ft; tide only nudges the rating, except that a high tide of 5 ft or more with swell rates one level rougher here.
Trend and confidence
The trend compares the last 9 hours at the buoy with the next 12 hours of forecast; a building long-period swell can push a borderline day one step worse. Confidence is High for a fresh buoy reading or a forecast for the next 12 hours, and drops with lead time, a backup buoy, or a forecast that has been missing the buoy.
Limits
A model, not a guarantee. Back-tested on 137 dated diver reports, it matched the reported level 72% of the time and was within one level 96% of the time (tuned on those same reports, so expect a little less). Always look before you go in.

Sources

Buoy 46236 history last 24 hours · offshore, not shore measurements

Wave height4.3 ft
34.56Tue 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Swell period (SwP)13.3 s
121416Tue 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
TimeWave heightPeriodDirectionWater
4:00 PM 54 min ago4.3 ft13 sWNW64°F
3:30 PM 1 h ago4.3 ft14 sW64°F
3:00 PM 2 h ago4.3 ft13 sWNW64°F
2:30 PM 2 h ago4.3 ft14 sW64°F
2:00 PM 3 h ago4.6 ft13 sW63°F
1:30 PM 3 h ago3.9 ft13 sWNW63°F
1:00 PM 4 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
12:30 PM 4 h ago4.3 ft13 sW63°F
12:00 PM 5 h ago4.3 ft14 sW63°F
11:30 AM 5 h ago4.3 ft13 sW63°F
11:00 AM 6 h ago4.3 ft14 sW63°F
10:30 AM 6 h ago4.3 ft14 sW63°F
10:00 AM 7 h ago4.3 ft14 sW62°F
9:30 AM 7 h ago4.3 ft13 sW62°F
9:00 AM 8 h ago4.3 ft13 sW62°F
8:30 AM 8 h ago3.9 ft13 sWNW62°F
8:00 AM 9 h ago4.3 ft13 sW62°F
7:30 AM 9 h ago4.3 ft13 sW62°F
7:00 AM 10 h ago4.3 ft13 sW62°F
6:30 AM 10 h ago4.3 ft13 sWNW62°F
6:00 AM 11 h ago4.3 ft13 sWNW62°F
5:30 AM 11 h ago4.3 ft14 sW62°F
5:00 AM 12 h ago3.9 ft13 sWNW62°F
4:30 AM 12 h ago3.9 ft13 sW62°F
4:00 AM 13 h ago4.3 ft13 sWNW62°F
3:30 AM 13 h ago4.3 ft14 sW62°F
3:00 AM 14 h ago4.3 ft14 sW62°F
2:30 AM 14 h ago3.9 ft13 sW62°F
2:00 AM 15 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
1:30 AM 15 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
1:00 AM 16 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
12:30 AM 16 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
12:00 AM 17 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
11:30 PM 17 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
11:00 PM 18 h ago3.9 ft14 sW63°F
10:30 PM 18 h ago4.3 ft14 sW63°F
10:00 PM 19 h ago4.3 ft14 sWNW63°F
9:30 PM 19 h ago4.9 ft14 sW63°F
9:00 PM 20 h ago5.2 ft14 sW63°F
8:30 PM 20 h ago5.2 ft14 sW63°F
8:00 PM 21 h ago5.6 ft14 sW63°F
7:30 PM 21 h ago5.2 ft15 sW63°F
7:00 PM 22 h ago5.6 ft14 sW64°F
6:30 PM 22 h ago5.2 ft14 sW64°F
6:00 PM 23 h ago4.9 ft15 sW64°F
5:30 PM 23 h ago4.9 ft14 sW64°F
5:00 PM 24 h ago4.6 ft15 sW63°F