MontereyCopper Roof House
Copper Roof House
Carmel, Monterey Bay, California
Copper Roof House · Right now
Rough
Waves at this site, 15 s swell:
- Great under ~1.2 ft
- Good to ~1.7 ft
- Fair to ~2.3 ft
- Rough to ~2.8 ft
- Severe above ~2.8 ft
Exposed site: 2 ft brings strong surge on the beach.
High confidence
High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 30 min ago.
Updated 24 min ago
Buoy reading: 4:00 PM (54 min ago) at buoy 46239. Measured offshore waves; the current rating starts from it.
Forecast issued: Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT. NWS wind and air forecast for this spot; later hours also use the wave model run named under Advanced.
Page data: refreshed every 30 minutes; last refresh Wed, Oct 14, 4:30 PM PDT.
Right now
- Waves
- 2.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 5.9ft W · 15 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Onshore
- Tide
- 3.6ft Falling · 0.8 ft above predicted
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
All readings
- Swells: 6 ft, 15 s W · 4 ft, 7 s NW · Wind 8 kt onshore
- Next low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft)
- Next high tide 3:37 AM (3.6 ft)
- Water temperature from buoy 46239; wind (including half the gust) and air from the NWS forecast for this hour.
Forecast limitations
The rating covers surge and entry conditions only.
- Visibility Plankton, runoff and water stirred up for days after big seas aren't in the rating. A "Vis likely poor" note only warns when a known cause is present; it never promises clear water.
- Depth On long-period days, surge on deeper reefs is stronger than at the entry.
- On the day Sets, kelp and currents vary; look at the water before you go in.
- Further out Accuracy drops the further out you look; days 6 and 7 are a rough guide.
- This site Few dive reports to check its rating against yet.
Plan your dive
Today · Select a time
Day RoughAfter dark RoughWhy Rough?
A moderate long-period west swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect strong surge on the beach.
Swells: 6 ft, 15 s W · 4 ft, 7 s NW · Wind 8 kt onshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions in the rest of today's daytime, to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading from the last hour.
This window has passed.
This window has passed.
Exposed site: 2 ft brings strong surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 2.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 5.9ft W · 15 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Onshore
- Tide
- 2.7ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 4:30 PM
High confidence
High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 54 min ago.
Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.
- Waves
- 2.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 6.9ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 4kt Light
- Tide
- 0.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
High confidence
High confidence: This is a forecast about 4 hours ahead; recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit
Thu, Oct 15 · Select a time
Day FairAfter dark GoodWhy Fair?
Held near the current Rough, since forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.
Swells: 4 ft, 13 s WNW · 4 ft, 15 s SSW · 3 ft, 6 s NW · Wind 8 kt cross-shore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 15 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.
- Waves
- 2.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.9ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 3.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 7 AM
Medium confidence
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 15 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.
- Waves
- 2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.9ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 9kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 4.9ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 1:10 PM (5.1 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM
Medium confidence
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 20 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.
- Waves
- 1.9ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.9ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 7kt Onshore
- Tide
- 3.8ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 4 PM
Medium confidence
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 24 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.9ft Estimate
- Swell
- 4ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 4kt Light
- Tide
- 0.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 9:11 PM (0.4 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 28 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit
Fri, Oct 16 · Select a time
Day GoodAfter dark GoodWhy Good?
A moderate northwest swell is partly blocked by nearby headlands, so expect some surge on the beach.
Swell: 6 ft, 12 s WNW · Wind 7 kt cross-offshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 39 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.8ft Estimate
- Swell
- 6ft WNW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 7kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 3.5ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 7:37 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 39 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.9ft Estimate
- Swell
- 5.5ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 5kt Light
- Tide
- 4.7ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 1:58 PM (4.8 ft) · Roughest around 1 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 45 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 5.4ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 5kt Light
- Tide
- 3.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 5 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 49 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 2.8ft WNW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 4kt Light
- Tide
- 1.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 10:14 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 52 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit
Sat, Oct 17 · Select a time
Day FairAfter dark GoodWhy Fair?
A large northwest swell is partly blocked by nearby headlands, so expect noticeable surge on the beach.
Swell: 7 ft, 13 s WNW · Wind 9 kt onshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 71 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Noticeable surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 2.3ft Estimate
- Swell
- 6.5ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 6kt Cross-onshore
- Tide
- 3.8ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 9:03 AM (3.6 ft) · Roughest around 11 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 67 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Noticeable surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 2.6ft Estimate
- Swell
- 7ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 9kt Onshore
- Tide
- 4.5ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 3:04 PM (4.5 ft) · Roughest around 3 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 71 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 3ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.6ft WNW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Onshore
- Tide
- 2.7ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 7 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 75 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit
Exposed to west swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 3.5ft Estimate
- Swell
- 2.9ft WNW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 6kt Onshore
- Tide
- 0.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 11:18 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 11 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 79 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit
Sun, Oct 18 · Select a time
Day SevereAfter dark RoughWhy Severe?
A big northwest swell is partly blocked by nearby headlands, so expect severe surge on the beach.
Swell: 11 ft, 12 s WNW · Wind 14 kt onshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 94 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Exposed site: 4 ft brings noticeable surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 4.3ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Onshore
- Tide
- 3.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 7:17 AM (3.8 ft) · Low tide 11:05 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 10 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 90 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 4.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 10.7ft WNW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 14kt Onshore
- Tide
- 4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 2 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 94 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Strong surge expected on the beach.
- Waves
- 4.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.8ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 14kt Onshore
- Tide
- 4.4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 4:24 PM (4.4 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 96 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Strong surge expected on the beach.
- Waves
- 4.2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.7ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 13kt Onshore
- Tide
- 2.7ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 100 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit
Mon, Oct 19 · Select a time
Day RoughAfter dark RoughWhy Rough?
A large long-period northwest swell is partly blocked by nearby headlands, so expect strong surge on the beach.
Swells: 9 ft, 13 s NW · 3 ft, 15 s SSW · 1 ft, 17 s WNW · Wind 11 kt onshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Small waves, but long-period surge builds on the beach.
- Waves
- 3.7ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.4ft NW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 11kt Onshore
- Tide
- 3.9ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 7:44 AM (4 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Strong surge expected on the beach.
- Waves
- 3.5ft Estimate
- Swell
- 10.1ft NW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 15kt Onshore
- Tide
- 3.2ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 12:28 PM (3.2 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 116 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Strong surge expected on the beach.
- Waves
- 3.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 8.9ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 19kt Onshore
- Tide
- 4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 5:41 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 120 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit
20 kt onshore wind chops up the entry. Partly sheltered from northwest swell.
- Waves
- 3.3ft Estimate
- Swell
- 6ft WNW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 20kt Onshore
- Tide
- 3.5ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 124 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit
Tue, Oct 20 · Select a time
Day SevereAfter dark SevereNo wind forecast yet for part of this day; those hours cover swell and tide only.
Why Severe?
A big northwest swell is partly blocked by nearby headlands, so expect severe surge on the beach.
Swells: 12 ft, 13 s WNW · 4 ft, 15 s S
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 147 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Small waves, but long-period surge builds on the beach.
- Waves
- 3ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.4ft NW · 14 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 3.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 8:05 AM (4.2 ft) · Roughest around 11 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 139 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Small waves, but long-period surge builds on the beach.
- Waves
- 3.6ft Estimate
- Swell
- 10.2ft NW · 14 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 3ft
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 1:23 PM (2.7 ft) · Roughest around 3 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 143 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 5.2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 11.6ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 4.3ft
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 6:47 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 7 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 147 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 5.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 11.7ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 4ft
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 148 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit
Hourly outlook 7 days · tap any hourhold and drag the chart
After darkOvernight
Tap any hour for details.
Entry & parking
Shore entry
Entry: Down the city stairs at Santa Lucia Avenue, south along the sand to the rocks by the house, then out through the surf line to the kelp. Time the sets.
Parking: Free marked spaces on Scenic Road (no time limit 5 AM to midnight; resident permit midnight to 5 AM). Restrooms at Scenic Road and Santa Lucia Avenue.
Access: No permit or fee. The house and its rocky point are private: enter and leave on the public sand north of it. Carmel Bay conservation area: finfish only.
Check before you go
- This is the Carmel Point dive at the south end of Carmel Beach, by the green copper-roofed Walker House. A different copper-roofed house in Carmel Highlands has no public access.
Directions to the entryDirections to parking
Entry hazards
Shore break on a beach too shallow to swim out and too deep to run. Current and boats on the outer reef, and very thick kelp in late summer and fall.
Live cams & observations
Recent offshore observations · Buoy 46239
- Wave height
- 6.9ft
- Period
- 15s
- Water
- 67°F
Live cams
Randall Spangler's conditions guide · Monterey County Dive Reports
About this dive site
The diving
Kelp over a boulder reef in about 20 to 40 ft, dropping to 60 to 90 ft farther out.
Conditions & exposure
Faces west-northwest across Carmel Bay and takes swell from about 217 to 308 degrees; Point Lobos and Carmel Point shelter it from the south and Pescadero Point from the north. It breaks much more than Stillwater Cove on the same day.
Hazards & considerations
Beginner friendly only on calm days; the shore break is the hazard.
Advanced forecast & data
This site's forecast combines offshore wave data, predicted ocean conditions, and Copper Roof House's exposure to incoming swell.
Show the data and method
Buoy 46239, Point Sur: last 48 hours
Swell trains now (buoy 46239 spectrum, 3:00 PM): 5.1 ft at 15 s from 305° (NW) · wind waves 3.9 ft at 11 s. The rating still uses the buoy's single swell and wind-wave split; the full spectrum is being compared against it.
Forecast vs. buoy 46239
The raw GFS-Wave forecast is running about 2.1 ft low at buoy 46239 today (last 24 hours). The SurgeCast forecast corrects for it.
Wave height
Peak period
Buoy (measured)SurgeCast forecast (corrected)GFS-Wave (raw)Last 3 days and next 2
For comparison, the NWS marine grid ran 1.9 ft low over the same 24 hours. Low means the forecast was smaller than what the buoy measured; high means bigger.
Download the forecast-vs-buoy data (CSV) · NOAA's own spot-check (a handful of NOAA forecasts against this buoy; heights in meters; posted Tue, Oct 13)
Forecast check: The wave model is scaled by 1.40 at the Point Sur buoy (a starting estimate until 7 days of readings are logged). After that, over the last 36 hours the forecast has matched the Point Sur buoy well (69 readings compared).
Validation: Validation in progress: 69 forecast-and-buoy pairs so far since Tue, Oct 13. Accuracy numbers appear here once there are 100 pairs over at least 3 days.
Buoy split now: swell 5.9 ft at 15.4 s from the W, 39% reaches this site; wind waves 3.6 ft at 6.9 s from the NW, 19% reaches this site.
View official NOAA forecast chart
The chart did not load.
Red dots: the buoy. Blue: the latest NWPS forecast; black and light blue: earlier runs. Green: the global GFS-Wave model. Times are UTC (subtract 7 hours for Pacific daylight time). View the full forecast at NOAA
Forecast models
Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model, run 18Z Wed, Oct 14 at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). The rating uses each hour's waves, wind and tide. Wind and air temperature come from the NWS forecast for the water off Copper Roof House, issued Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT.
NWS marine forecast: Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas, out to 10 nm
Tonight: NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu: NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu Night: N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri: NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave Detail: W 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Issued Wed, Oct 14, 2:38 PM PDT
View official NOAA swell-systems chart
The chart did not load.
Each color is one swell system; arrow length shows its size. A band at 15 s and up means long-period swell and surge. Times are UTC. View the full forecast at NOAA
Rating logic
- Surge
- The rating turns each swell into a "surge index" in feet: the height that reaches this site, weighted up for longer periods because long swell moves the water harder near the bottom. Here the index moves from Great to Good at 1.5, Fair at 2.2, Rough at 2.9 and Severe at 3.6 ft. Right now it is 3 ft.
- Direction
- Faces west-northwest across Carmel Bay and takes swell from about 217 to 308 degrees; Point Lobos and Carmel Point shelter it from the south and Pescadero Point from the north. It breaks much more than Stillwater Cove on the same day.
- Wind
- Onshore wind here blows from the NW. Onshore wind over about 10 kt chops up entries and surface swims; a strong offshore wind (over 15 kt) pushes surface swimmers out. Gusts count for half.
- Tide
- Heights at the Monterey tide station, in feet above mean lower low water. The entry is easiest between -0.5 and 6 ft; tide only nudges the rating.
- Trend and confidence
- The trend compares the last 9 hours at the buoy with the next 12 hours of forecast; a building long-period swell can push a borderline day one step worse. Confidence is High for a fresh buoy reading or a forecast for the next 12 hours, and drops with lead time, a backup buoy, or a forecast that has been missing the buoy.
- Limits
- A model, not a guarantee. Back-tested on 137 dated diver reports, it matched the reported level 72% of the time and was within one level 96% of the time (tuned on those same reports, so expect a little less). Always look before you go in.
Sources
- NDBC buoy 46239 (Point Sur)
- NDBC buoy 46236 (Monterey Canyon Outer) At the mouth of the bay; it usually reads 2 to 3 ft higher than the beaches, which the rating accounts for.
- CDIP station 156 (buoy 46236)
- NWPS viewer, Monterey office
- NWS point forecast
- NOAA tide predictions, Monterey
- Photo and font credits