MontereyStillwater Cove
Stillwater Cove
Pebble Beach, Monterey Bay, California
Stillwater Cove · Right now
Good
Waves at this site, 15 s swell:
- Great under ~1.4 ft
- Good to ~2.3 ft
- Fair to ~3.3 ft
- Rough to ~4.7 ft
- Severe above ~4.7 ft
Partly sheltered from west swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
High confidence
High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 30 min ago.
Updated 24 min ago
Buoy reading: 4:00 PM (54 min ago) at buoy 46239. Measured offshore waves; the current rating starts from it.
Forecast issued: Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT. NWS wind and air forecast for this spot; later hours also use the wave model run named under Advanced.
Page data: refreshed every 30 minutes; last refresh Wed, Oct 14, 4:30 PM PDT.
Right now
- Waves
- 1.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 5.9ft W · 15 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 3.6ft Falling · 0.8 ft above predicted
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
All readings
- Swells: 6 ft, 15 s W · 4 ft, 7 s NW · Wind 8 kt cross-shore
- Next low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft)
- Next high tide 3:37 AM (3.6 ft)
- Water temperature from buoy 46239; wind (including half the gust) and air from the NWS forecast for this hour.
Forecast limitations
The rating covers surge and entry conditions only.
- Visibility Plankton, runoff and water stirred up for days after big seas aren't in the rating. A "Vis likely poor" note only warns when a known cause is present; it never promises clear water.
- Depth On long-period days, surge on deeper reefs is stronger than at the entry.
- On the day Sets, kelp and currents vary; look at the water before you go in.
- Further out Accuracy drops the further out you look; days 6 and 7 are a rough guide.
- This site Few dive reports to check its rating against yet.
Plan your dive
Today · Select a time
Day GoodAfter dark GoodWhy Good?
A long-period west swell is partly blocked by Pescadero and Cypress Points, so expect some surge on the beach.
Swells: 6 ft, 15 s W · 4 ft, 7 s NW · Wind 8 kt cross-shore
Rated by the most challenging conditions in the rest of today's daytime, to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading from the last hour.
This window has passed.
This window has passed.
Partly sheltered from west swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 5.9ft W · 15 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 2.7ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 4:30 PM
High confidence
High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 54 min ago.
Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.9ft SSW · 15 sec
- Wind
- 4kt Light
- Tide
- 0.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
High confidence
High confidence: This is a forecast about 4 hours ahead; recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit
Thu, Oct 15 · Select a time
Day GoodAfter dark GoodWhy Good?
A modest long-period south swell is partly blocked by Point Lobos, so expect some surge on the beach.
Swells: 4 ft, 15 s SSW · 4 ft, 13 s WNW · 3 ft, 6 s NW · Wind 8 kt cross-offshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 15 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.9ft SSW · 15 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 3.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 7 AM
Medium confidence
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 15 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.2ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.7ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 9kt Offshore
- Tide
- 4.9ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 1:10 PM (5.1 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM
Medium confidence
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 20 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.7ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 7kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 3.8ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 4 PM
Medium confidence
Medium confidence because this forecast is about 24 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.6ft SSW · 15 sec
- Wind
- 4kt Light
- Tide
- 0.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 9:11 PM (0.4 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 28 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit
Fri, Oct 16 · Select a time
Day GoodAfter dark GoodWhy Good?
A modest long-period south swell is partly blocked by Point Lobos, so expect some surge on the beach.
Swells: 4 ft, 14 s SSW · 4 ft, 12 s WNW · 0.8 ft, 21 s SSW · Wind 8 kt cross-shore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 40 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.5ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 3.5ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 7:37 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 8 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 40 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.4ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 5kt Light
- Tide
- 4.5ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 1:58 PM (4.8 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 44 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.2ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 5kt Light
- Tide
- 3.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 5 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 49 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.2ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 4kt Light
- Tide
- 1.3ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 10:14 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 52 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. Capped at Good because confidence is Low.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit
Sat, Oct 17 · Select a time
Day GoodAfter dark GoodWhy Good?
A modest long-period south swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect some surge on the beach.
Swells: 3 ft, 18 s SSW · 3 ft, 13 s SSW · 3 ft, 12 s WNW · Wind 9 kt cross-shore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 72 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 2.9ft SSW · 14 sec
- Wind
- 6kt Light
- Tide
- 3.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 9:03 AM (3.6 ft) · Roughest around 9 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 65 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 2.6ft SSW · 18 sec
- Wind
- 6kt Offshore
- Tide
- 4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 3:04 PM (4.5 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 68 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Exposed to south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.3ft Estimate
- Swell
- 2.8ft SSW · 18 sec
- Wind
- 9kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 4.4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 4 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 72 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.4ft Estimate
- Swell
- 2.9ft SSW · 18 sec
- Wind
- 6kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 2ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 11:18 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 76 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit
Sun, Oct 18 · Select a time
Day FairAfter dark GoodWhy Fair?
Swell and chop are both near their limits at once.
Swells: 10 ft, 12 s NW · 3 ft, 16 s SSW · 2 ft, 13 s S · Wind 14 kt cross-shore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 96 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.8ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.4ft SSW · 17 sec
- Wind
- 8kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 3.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 7:17 AM (3.8 ft) · Low tide 11:05 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 10 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 90 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.8ft Estimate
- Swell
- 3.4ft SSW · 16 sec
- Wind
- 10kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 3.6ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 12 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 92 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sheltered from most northwest swell. Several factors near their limits at once.
- Waves
- 1.8ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.8ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 14kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 4.4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 4:24 PM (4.4 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 96 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit
Sheltered from most northwest swell. Some surge possible on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.9ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.7ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 13kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 2.7ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 100 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit
Mon, Oct 19 · Select a time
Day FairAfter dark FairWhy Fair?
A long-period northwest swell is partly blocked by Pescadero and Cypress Points, so expect noticeable surge on the beach.
Swells: 9 ft, 13 s NW · 3 ft, 15 s SSW · 2 ft, 18 s S · Wind 11 kt cross-offshore
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Small waves, but long-period surge builds on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.8ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.4ft NW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 11kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 3.9ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 7:44 AM (4 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Local wind chop on the surface.
- Waves
- 1.7ft Estimate
- Swell
- 9.1ft NW · 13 sec
- Wind
- 15kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 3.2ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 12:28 PM (3.2 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 116 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Local wind chop on the surface.
- Waves
- 1.7ft Estimate
- Swell
- 8.9ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 19kt Cross-shore
- Tide
- 4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 5:41 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 120 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit
Sheltered from most northwest swell. Local wind chop on the surface.
- Waves
- 1.5ft Estimate
- Swell
- 7.6ft NW · 12 sec
- Wind
- 18kt Cross-offshore
- Tide
- 1.2ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 11 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 127 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit
Tue, Oct 20 · Select a time
Day FairAfter dark FairNo wind forecast yet for part of this day; those hours cover swell and tide only.
Why Fair?
A long-period northwest swell is partly blocked by Pescadero and Cypress Points, so expect noticeable surge on the beach.
Swells: 10 ft, 14 s NW · 4 ft, 15 s S
Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.
Low confidence because it is about 143 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from south swell. Local wind chop on the surface.
- Waves
- 1.3ft Estimate
- Swell
- 4ft S · 16 sec
- Wind
- 15kt Offshore
- Tide
- 4ft
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 8:05 AM (4.2 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 135 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Small waves, but long-period surge builds on the beach.
- Waves
- 1.9ft Estimate
- Swell
- 10.2ft NW · 14 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 3ft
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Low tide 1:23 PM (2.7 ft) · Roughest around 3 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 143 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Small waves, but long-period surge builds on the beach.
- Waves
- 2.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 10.6ft NW · 14 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 3.5ft
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
High tide 6:47 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 144 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit
Partly sheltered from northwest swell. Noticeable surge on the beach.
- Waves
- 3.1ft Estimate
- Swell
- 11.7ft WNW · 13 sec
- Wind
- –
- Tide
- 4ft
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Roughest around 8 PM
Low confidence
Low confidence because it is about 148 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.
Diving here is allowed in daylight only, so a night dive is not an option.
Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.
Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit
Hourly outlook 7 days · tap any hourhold and drag the chart
After darkOvernight
Tap any hour for details.
Entry & parking
Shore entry
Entry: Drop gear at the pier loading zone, then enter from the beach just east of the pier.
Parking: Public parking along the hedges by the 17th fairway, plus a few beach-access spaces that can be reserved; confirm when you call. Restrooms with showers near the pier.
Access: Through the 17-Mile Drive gate (fee). Diving in daylight only, from the beach east of the pier. Carmel Bay conservation area: finfish only.
Call ahead: (831) 625-8507. Sources disagree on whether beach diving is capped at 10 divers a day with phone reservations. Call the Harbor Master at the Beach and Tennis Club before you go.
Check before you go
- The daily diver cap and reservations (call (831) 625-8507).
- The 17-Mile Drive gate fee (about $12.50 per car in 2026; check the current price).
Directions to the entryDirections to parking
Entry hazards
Thick kelp, boat traffic around the pier and the cove, and a long swim to the outer rocks. Expect closures or crowds during big golf events.
Live cams & observations
Recent offshore observations · Buoy 46239
- Wave height
- 6.9ft
- Period
- 15s
- Water
- 67°F
Live cams
Randall Spangler's conditions guide · Monterey County Dive Reports
About this dive site
The diving
Calm cove, about 10 to 50 ft: sand, rock patches and giant kelp, with a wall near Pescadero Rocks.
Conditions & exposure
Opens to the south into Carmel Bay. Pescadero and Cypress Points block west and northwest swell; only swell from about 196 to 262 degrees (south to west-southwest) comes straight in, so it stays calm when the usual northwest swell is up and catches summer south swells.
Hazards & considerations
Beginner friendly in the shallows on calm days; the best diving is a long swim or kayak out to Pescadero Rocks.
Advanced forecast & data
This site's forecast combines offshore wave data, predicted ocean conditions, and Stillwater Cove's exposure to incoming swell.
Show the data and method
Buoy 46239, Point Sur: last 48 hours
Swell trains now (buoy 46239 spectrum, 3:00 PM): 5.1 ft at 15 s from 305° (NW) · wind waves 3.9 ft at 11 s. The rating still uses the buoy's single swell and wind-wave split; the full spectrum is being compared against it.
Forecast vs. buoy 46239
The raw GFS-Wave forecast is running about 2.1 ft low at buoy 46239 today (last 24 hours). The SurgeCast forecast corrects for it.
Wave height
Peak period
Buoy (measured)SurgeCast forecast (corrected)GFS-Wave (raw)Last 3 days and next 2
For comparison, the NWS marine grid ran 1.9 ft low over the same 24 hours. Low means the forecast was smaller than what the buoy measured; high means bigger.
Download the forecast-vs-buoy data (CSV) · NOAA's own spot-check (a handful of NOAA forecasts against this buoy; heights in meters; posted Tue, Oct 13)
Forecast check: The wave model is scaled by 1.40 at the Point Sur buoy (a starting estimate until 7 days of readings are logged). After that, over the last 36 hours the forecast has matched the Point Sur buoy well (69 readings compared).
Validation: Validation in progress: 69 forecast-and-buoy pairs so far since Tue, Oct 13. Accuracy numbers appear here once there are 100 pairs over at least 3 days.
Buoy split now: swell 5.9 ft at 15.4 s from the W, 22% reaches this site; wind waves 3.6 ft at 6.9 s from the NW, 8% reaches this site.
View official NOAA forecast chart
The chart did not load.
Red dots: the buoy. Blue: the latest NWPS forecast; black and light blue: earlier runs. Green: the global GFS-Wave model. Times are UTC (subtract 7 hours for Pacific daylight time). View the full forecast at NOAA
Forecast models
Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model, run 18Z Wed, Oct 14 at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). The rating uses each hour's waves, wind and tide. Wind and air temperature come from the NWS forecast for the water off Stillwater Cove, issued Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT.
NWS marine forecast: Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas, out to 10 nm
Tonight: NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu: NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu Night: N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri: NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave Detail: W 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Issued Wed, Oct 14, 2:38 PM PDT
View official NOAA swell-systems chart
The chart did not load.
Each color is one swell system; arrow length shows its size. A band at 15 s and up means long-period swell and surge. Times are UTC. View the full forecast at NOAA
Rating logic
- Surge
- The rating turns each swell into a "surge index" in feet: the height that reaches this site, weighted up for longer periods because long swell moves the water harder near the bottom. Here the index moves from Great to Good at 1.7, Fair at 2.8, Rough at 3.9 and Severe at 5.5 ft. Right now it is 1.7 ft.
- Direction
- Opens to the south into Carmel Bay. Pescadero and Cypress Points block west and northwest swell; only swell from about 196 to 262 degrees (south to west-southwest) comes straight in, so it stays calm when the usual northwest swell is up and catches summer south swells.
- Wind
- Onshore wind here blows from the S. Onshore wind over about 10 kt chops up entries and surface swims; a strong offshore wind (over 15 kt) pushes surface swimmers out. Gusts count for half.
- Tide
- Heights at the Monterey tide station, in feet above mean lower low water. The entry is easiest between -0.5 and 6 ft; tide only nudges the rating.
- Trend and confidence
- The trend compares the last 9 hours at the buoy with the next 12 hours of forecast; a building long-period swell can push a borderline day one step worse. Confidence is High for a fresh buoy reading or a forecast for the next 12 hours, and drops with lead time, a backup buoy, or a forecast that has been missing the buoy.
- Limits
- A model, not a guarantee. Back-tested on 137 dated diver reports, it matched the reported level 72% of the time and was within one level 96% of the time (tuned on those same reports, so expect a little less). Always look before you go in.
Sources
- NDBC buoy 46239 (Point Sur)
- NDBC buoy 46236 (Monterey Canyon Outer) At the mouth of the bay; it usually reads 2 to 3 ft higher than the beaches, which the rating accounts for.
- CDIP station 156 (buoy 46236)
- NWPS viewer, Monterey office
- NWS point forecast
- NOAA tide predictions, Monterey
- Photo and font credits