MontereyFanshell Beach

Fanshell Beach

Pebble Beach, Monterey Bay, California

Fanshell Beach · Right now

Severe

Waves at this site, 15 s swell:

  • Great under ~1.3 ft
  • Good to ~2.2 ft
  • Fair to ~3.1 ft
  • Rough to ~4.4 ft
  • Severe above ~4.4 ft
As of 4:00 PMConsistent through tonight

Exposed site: 4 ft brings severe surge on the beach.

Directions
High confidence

High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 30 min ago. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Updated 23 min ago

Buoy reading: 4:00 PM (54 min ago) at buoy 46239. Measured offshore waves; the current rating starts from it.

Forecast issued: Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT. NWS wind and air forecast for this spot; later hours also use the wave model run named under Advanced.

Page data: refreshed every 30 minutes; last refresh Wed, Oct 14, 4:30 PM PDT.

Fanshell Beach: a white sand crescent and clear green water, with cypress trees on the point beyond
The white sand cove. Photo: Clotee Pridgen Allochuku (via Panoramio), CC BY-SA 3.0.
Severe right now

Severe: a moderate long-period west swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect severe surge on the beach.

Right now

As of 4:00 PM
Waves
4.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.9ft
W · 15 sec
Wind
9kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.6ft
Falling · 0.8 ft above predicted
Water 67°F buoy 46239 Air 63°F
All readings
  • Swell: 7 ft, 15 s W · Wind 9 kt cross-onshore
  • Next low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft)
  • Next high tide 3:37 AM (3.6 ft)
  • Water temperature from buoy 46239; wind (including half the gust) and air from the NWS forecast for this hour.
Forecast limitations

The rating covers surge and entry conditions only.

  • Visibility Plankton, runoff and water stirred up for days after big seas aren't in the rating. A "Vis likely poor" note only warns when a known cause is present; it never promises clear water.
  • Depth On long-period days, surge on deeper reefs is stronger than at the entry.
  • On the day Sets, kelp and currents vary; look at the water before you go in.
  • Further out Accuracy drops the further out you look; days 6 and 7 are a rough guide.
  • This site Few dive reports to check its rating against yet.

Plan your dive

Today · Select a time

Day SevereAfter dark Severe
Why Severe?

A moderate long-period west swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect severe surge on the beach.

Swell: 7 ft, 15 s W · Wind 9 kt cross-onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions in the rest of today's daytime, to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading from the last hour. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

This window has passed.

This window has passed.

Exposed site: 4 ft brings severe surge on the beach.

Waves
4.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.9ft
W · 15 sec
Wind
9kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
2.7ft
 

Roughest around 4:30 PM

High confidence

High confidence: Based on a live buoy reading 54 min ago. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit

Exposed to northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.

Waves
4.2ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.9ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
5kt
Light
Tide
0.3ft
 

Low tide 8:15 PM (0.3 ft) · Roughest around 8 PM

High confidence

High confidence: This is a forecast about 4 hours ahead; recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:33 PMDark by 6:59 PMWaxing crescent, about 16% lit

Thu, Oct 15 · Select a time

Day RoughAfter dark Rough
Why Rough?

A moderate northwest swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect strong surge on the beach.

Swell: 6 ft, 13 s WNW · Wind 9 kt onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Medium confidence because this forecast is about 22 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed to northwest swell. Forecasts this far out often clear up too fast.

Waves
3.8ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3.9ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
10kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.3ft
 

Roughest around 7 AM

Medium confidence

Medium confidence because this forecast is about 15 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed site: 4 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.1ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
9kt
Onshore
Tide
5ft
 

High tide 1:10 PM (5.1 ft) · Roughest around 2 PM

Medium confidence

Medium confidence because this forecast is about 22 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 4 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
4.1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
6kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
2.9ft
 

Roughest around 5 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 25 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit

Exposed site: 4 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
4.1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.1ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
5kt
Light
Tide
0.5ft
 

Low tide 9:11 PM (0.4 ft) · Roughest around 10 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 30 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:31 PMDark by 6:57 PMWaxing crescent, about 24% lit

Fri, Oct 16 · Select a time

Day RoughAfter dark Fair
Why Rough?

A moderate northwest swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect strong surge on the beach.

Swell: 6 ft, 12 s WNW · Wind 10 kt cross-shore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 39 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 4 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
3.7ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
10kt
Cross-shore
Tide
3.5ft
 

Low tide 7:37 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 39 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 3 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
3.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
5.5ft
NW · 12 sec
Wind
6kt
Cross-shore
Tide
4.5ft
 

High tide 1:58 PM (4.8 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 44 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 3 ft brings noticeable surge on the beach.

Waves
3.3ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3.9ft
NW · 12 sec
Wind
6kt
Cross-shore
Tide
4.2ft
 

Roughest around 4 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because the wave model is in its first week of calibration here; this forecast is about 48 hours ahead, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit

Exposed site: 3 ft brings noticeable surge on the beach.

Waves
3.2ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
2.6ft
WNW · 11 sec
Wind
7kt
Cross-shore
Tide
0.7ft
 

Low tide 10:14 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 11 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 55 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:30 PMDark by 6:56 PMFirst quarter, about 34% lit

Sat, Oct 17 · Select a time

Day RoughAfter dark Rough
Why Rough?

A moderate northwest swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect strong surge on the beach.

Swell: 7 ft, 13 s WNW · Wind 10 kt cross-onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 70 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 4 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
3.8ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.5ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
7kt
Onshore
Tide
3.8ft
 

Low tide 9:03 AM (3.6 ft) · Roughest around 11 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 67 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 4 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
4.1ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.9ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
10kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
4.4ft
 

High tide 3:04 PM (4.5 ft) · Roughest around 2 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 70 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed site: 5 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
4.6ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
3.6ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
8kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
2.7ft
 

Roughest around 7 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 75 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit

Exposed site: 5 ft brings strong surge on the beach.

Waves
5.2ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.3ft
NW · 7 sec
Wind
8kt
Onshore
Tide
0.6ft
 

Low tide 11:18 PM (0.6 ft) · Roughest around 11 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 79 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:29 PMDark by 6:55 PMFirst quarter, about 44% lit

Sun, Oct 18 · Select a time

Day SevereAfter dark Severe
Why Severe?

A large northwest swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect severe surge on the beach.

Swells: 10 ft, 12 s NW · 0.9 ft, 19 s WNW · 3 ft, 16 s SSW · Wind 16 kt cross-onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 96 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.3ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
7.8ft
NW · 8 sec
Wind
12kt
Onshore
Tide
3.5ft
 

High tide 7:17 AM (3.8 ft) · Low tide 11:05 AM (3.5 ft) · Roughest around 11 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 91 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
6.2ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
12kt
Onshore
Tide
3.6ft
 

Roughest around 12 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 92 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.4ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.8ft
NW · 12 sec
Wind
16kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
4.4ft
 

High tide 4:24 PM (4.4 ft) · Roughest around 4 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 96 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.3ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.7ft
NW · 12 sec
Wind
16kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
2.7ft
 

Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 100 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:27 PMDark by 6:53 PMFirst quarter, about 55% lit

Mon, Oct 19 · Select a time

Day SevereAfter dark Severe
Why Severe?

A large long-period northwest swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect severe surge on the beach.

Swells: 9 ft, 13 s NW · 1 ft, 17 s WNW · 3 ft, 15 s SSW · Wind 16 kt onshore

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.3ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.4ft
NW · 13 sec
Wind
16kt
Onshore
Tide
3.9ft
 

High tide 7:44 AM (4 ft) · Roughest around 7 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 111 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.6ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.1ft
NW · 13 sec
Wind
18kt
Onshore
Tide
3.2ft
 

Low tide 12:28 PM (3.2 ft) · Roughest around 12 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 116 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.7ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.9ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
23kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
4.3ft
 

High tide 5:41 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 6 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 122 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.6ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.6ft
WNW · 12 sec
Wind
23kt
Cross-onshore
Tide
3.5ft
 

Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 124 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:26 PMDark by 6:52 PMFirst quarter, about 65% lit

Tue, Oct 20 · Select a time

Day SevereAfter dark Severe

No wind forecast yet for part of this day; those hours cover swell and tide only.

Why Severe?

A big northwest swell reaches this site almost unblocked, so expect severe surge on the beach.

Swells: 12 ft, 13 s WNW · 4 ft, 15 s S

Rated by the most challenging conditions from 7 AM to 8 PM. After dark (8 PM to midnight) is shown as conditions, not as a dive window.

Low confidence because it is about 147 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
6.8ft
Estimate
From the CDIP MOP nearshore wave model (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) at about 15 m depth off this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
9.1ft
NW · 14 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
3.8ft
 

High tide 8:05 AM (4.2 ft) · Roughest around 10 AM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 138 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well. This steep beach is checked two ways and the rougher result is shown, to be safe.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
9.1ft
Estimate
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
10.2ft
NW · 14 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
3ft
 

Low tide 1:23 PM (2.7 ft) · Roughest around 3 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 143 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
11.6ft
Estimate
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
11.6ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
4.3ft
 

High tide 6:47 PM (4.3 ft) · Roughest around 7 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 147 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit

Exposed to northwest swell. Severe surge on the beach.

Waves
11.7ft
Estimate
Beyond the CDIP MOP forecast: the offshore wave forecast scaled the way MOP scales it at this site. An estimate, not a measurement at the beach.
Swell
11.7ft
WNW · 13 sec
Wind
–
 
Tide
4ft
 

Roughest around 8 PM

Low confidence

Low confidence because it is about 148 hours out, though recent forecasts have matched the buoy well.

17-Mile Drive is open sunrise to sunset, so a night dive here may not be possible. Check before you go.

Reduced visibility after dark; access rules still apply.

Sunset 6:25 PMDark by 6:51 PMWaxing gibbous, about 75% lit

Hourly outlook 7 days · tap any hourhold and drag the chart

Today
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
TodayThuFriSatSunMonTue01020ftNow4.64.13.75.26.46.811.8overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue01020ftNow4.64.13.75.26.46.811.8overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue02550ktNow9121110172423overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue02550ktNow9121110172423overnightovernightovernightovernightovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue036ftNow8:15 PM1:10 PM9:11 PM7:37 AM1:58 PM10:14 PM9:03 AM3:04 PM11:18 PM7:17 AM11:05 AM4:24 PM7:44 AM12:28 PM5:41 PM8:05 AM1:23 PMovernightovernightTodayThuFriSatSunMonTue036ftNow12:33 PM8:15 PM1:10 PM9:11 PM7:37 AM1:58 PM10:14 PM9:03 AM3:04 PM11:18 PM7:17 AM11:05 AM4:24 PM7:44 AM12:28 PM5:41 PM8:05 AM1:23 PMovernightovernight

After darkOvernight

Tap any hour for details.

Entry & parking

Shore entry
Map preview of Fanshell Beach with the entry and parking marked
Map preview with entry and parking markers. Imagery: USGS/USDA NAIP, public domain.

Entry: Down the stair from 17-Mile Drive to the sand, then work the reef and kelp off the rocky ends of the beach.

Parking: A small informal turnout by the beach stair, or the paved overlook lot to the west; the road shoulder between them is a hazardous walk. No facilities.

Access: Public shoreline access through the 17-Mile Drive gate (fee). Not in a marine protected area: normal sport fishing rules apply.

Seasonal closure: Fanshell Beach is closed every year from April 1 to June 1 while harbor seals have their pups.

Check before you go

  • The 17-Mile Drive gate fee (about $12.50 per car in 2026; check the current price).
  • Whether seawall and stair work has closed the beach: a multi-year Pebble Beach shoreline project may close it for stretches.

Entry hazards

Open to northwest groundswell and wind, so surge and shore break build quickly. Spearfishing is allowed here, so expect hunters.

Live cams & observations

Recent offshore observations · Buoy 46239

Wave height
6.9ft
Period
15s
Water
67°F
Wave height, last 12 h

Live cams

Randall Spangler's conditions guide · Monterey County Dive Reports

About this dive site

Fanshell Beach: a white sand crescent and clear green water, with cypress trees on the point beyond
The white sand cove. Photo: Clotee Pridgen Allochuku (via Panoramio), CC BY-SA 3.0.

The diving

A white sand crescent with reef and kelp off the rocky ends.

Conditions & exposure

Faces north to northwest on the open coast and takes swell from about 237 to 332 degrees, almost unblocked; only Cypress Point shelters it from the south.

Hazards & considerations

For experienced divers, and only on small, calm days.

Advanced forecast & data

This site's forecast combines offshore wave data, predicted ocean conditions, and Fanshell Beach's exposure to incoming swell.

Show the data and method

Buoy 46239, Point Sur: last 48 hours

Wave height6.9 ft
6912Mon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Swell period (SwP)15.4 s
1013.517Mon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Swell directionW
NSNMon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Water temperature67.1 °F
646668Mon 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Wind here, next 48 h (forecast)6 kt
58.512Wed 5:00 PMFri 4:00 PM
Tide, next 48 h (predicted)4.2 ft
036Wed 5:00 PMFri 4:00 PM

Swell trains now (buoy 46239 spectrum, 3:00 PM): 5.1 ft at 15 s from 305° (NW) · wind waves 3.9 ft at 11 s. The rating still uses the buoy's single swell and wind-wave split; the full spectrum is being compared against it.

Forecast vs. buoy 46239

The raw GFS-Wave forecast is running about 2.1 ft low at buoy 46239 today (last 24 hours). The SurgeCast forecast corrects for it.

Wave height

048121620ftMonTueWedThuFriNowForecast048121620ftMonTueWedThuFriNowForecast

Peak period

6101418sMonTueWedThuFri6101418sMonTueWedThuFri

Buoy (measured)SurgeCast forecast (corrected)GFS-Wave (raw)Last 3 days and next 2

For comparison, the NWS marine grid ran 1.9 ft low over the same 24 hours. Low means the forecast was smaller than what the buoy measured; high means bigger.

Download the forecast-vs-buoy data (CSV) · NOAA's own spot-check (a handful of NOAA forecasts against this buoy; heights in meters; posted Tue, Oct 13)

Forecast check: The wave model is scaled by 1.40 at the Point Sur buoy (a starting estimate until 7 days of readings are logged). After that, over the last 36 hours the forecast has matched the Point Sur buoy well (69 readings compared).

Validation: Validation in progress: 69 forecast-and-buoy pairs so far since Tue, Oct 13. Accuracy numbers appear here once there are 100 pairs over at least 3 days.

Buoy split now: swell 6.9 ft at 15 s from the W, 49% reaches this site.

View official NOAA forecast chart
NWPS forecast vs buoy 46239NOAA posted Tue, Oct 13, 3:52 AM PDT
NWPS forecast vs buoy 46239

Red dots: the buoy. Blue: the latest NWPS forecast; black and light blue: earlier runs. Green: the global GFS-Wave model. Times are UTC (subtract 7 hours for Pacific daylight time). View the full forecast at NOAA

Forecast models

Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model, run 18Z Wed, Oct 14 at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). The rating uses each hour's waves, wind and tide. Wind and air temperature come from the NWS forecast for the water off Fanshell Beach, issued Wed, Oct 14, 1:26 PM PDT.

NWS marine forecast: Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas, out to 10 nm

Tonight: NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.

Thu: NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.

Thu Night: N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 2 ft at 15 seconds.

Fri: NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave Detail: W 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.

Issued Wed, Oct 14, 2:38 PM PDT

View official NOAA swell-systems chart
Swell systems at buoy 46239NOAA posted Tue, Oct 13, 12:00 AM PDT
Swell systems at buoy 46239

Each color is one swell system; arrow length shows its size. A band at 15 s and up means long-period swell and surge. Times are UTC. View the full forecast at NOAA

Rating logic

Surge
The rating turns each swell into a "surge index" in feet: the height that reaches this site, weighted up for longer periods because long swell moves the water harder near the bottom. Here the index moves from Great to Good at 1.3, Fair at 2.1, Rough at 3 and Severe at 4.3 ft. Right now it is 4.3 ft.
Direction
Faces north to northwest on the open coast and takes swell from about 237 to 332 degrees, almost unblocked; only Cypress Point shelters it from the south.
Wind
Onshore wind here blows from the NNW. Onshore wind over about 10 kt chops up entries and surface swims; a strong offshore wind (over 15 kt) pushes surface swimmers out. Gusts count for half.
Tide
Heights at the Monterey tide station, in feet above mean lower low water. The entry is easiest between -0.5 and 6 ft; tide only nudges the rating.
Trend and confidence
The trend compares the last 9 hours at the buoy with the next 12 hours of forecast; a building long-period swell can push a borderline day one step worse. Confidence is High for a fresh buoy reading or a forecast for the next 12 hours, and drops with lead time, a backup buoy, or a forecast that has been missing the buoy.
Limits
A model, not a guarantee. Back-tested on 137 dated diver reports, it matched the reported level 72% of the time and was within one level 96% of the time (tuned on those same reports, so expect a little less). Always look before you go in.

Buoy 46239 history last 24 hours · offshore, not shore measurements

Wave height6.9 ft
6810Tue 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
Swell period (SwP)15.4 s
131517Tue 5:00 PMWed 4:00 PM
TimeWave heightPeriodDirectionWater
4:00 PM 54 min ago6.9 ft15 sW67°F
3:30 PM 1 h ago6.6 ft15 sNW67°F
3:00 PM 2 h ago6.9 ft14 sNW67°F
2:30 PM 2 h ago6.9 ft14 sWNW67°F
2:00 PM 3 h ago7.2 ft15 sW67°F
1:30 PM 3 h ago6.9 ft15 sW67°F
1:00 PM 4 h ago6.6 ft14 sWNW67°F
12:30 PM 4 h ago7.2 ft15 sWNW67°F
12:00 PM 5 h ago7.2 ft14 sWNW67°F
11:30 AM 5 h ago7.2 ft15 sW67°F
11:00 AM 6 h ago6.9 ft14 sWNW67°F
10:30 AM 6 h ago7.2 ft15 sW67°F
10:00 AM 7 h ago6.9 ft15 sWNW66°F
9:30 AM 7 h ago7.2 ft13 sNW66°F
9:00 AM 8 h ago7.2 ft14 sWNW66°F
8:30 AM 8 h ago7.2 ft15 sWNW66°F
8:00 AM 9 h ago6.9 ft13 sNW66°F
7:30 AM 9 h ago7.5 ft14 sWNW66°F
7:00 AM 10 h ago7.9 ft15 sWNW66°F
6:30 AM 10 h ago7.2 ft15 sW66°F
6:00 AM 11 h ago7.2 ft13 sWNW66°F
5:30 AM 11 h ago7.5 ft13 sNW66°F
5:00 AM 12 h ago6.9 ft15 sW66°F
4:30 AM 12 h ago7.2 ft15 sW66°F
4:00 AM 13 h ago6.9 ft17 sSW66°F
3:30 AM 13 h ago6.9 ft15 sW66°F
3:00 AM 14 h ago6.9 ft14 sWNW66°F
2:30 AM 14 h ago7.9 ft15 sWNW66°F
2:00 AM 15 h ago7.2 ft14 sNW66°F
1:30 AM 15 h ago7.5 ft13 sNW66°F
1:00 AM 16 h ago8.2 ft14 sNW66°F
12:30 AM 16 h ago7.9 ft14 sWNW66°F
12:00 AM 17 h ago8.5 ft14 sWNW66°F
11:30 PM 17 h ago7.9 ft14 sWNW66°F
11:00 PM 18 h ago8.5 ft14 sWNW66°F
10:30 PM 18 h ago8.9 ft15 sWNW66°F
10:00 PM 19 h ago8.9 ft14 sWNW66°F
9:30 PM 19 h ago8.9 ft14 sWNW66°F
9:00 PM 20 h ago8.9 ft14 sWNW65°F
8:30 PM 20 h ago9.2 ft15 sNW65°F
8:00 PM 21 h ago8.5 ft15 sNW65°F
7:30 PM 21 h ago8.5 ft14 sWNW65°F
7:00 PM 22 h ago9.2 ft14 sWNW65°F
6:30 PM 22 h ago8.9 ft14 sNW65°F
6:00 PM 23 h ago8.5 ft14 sNW66°F
5:30 PM 23 h ago9.2 ft14 sNW66°F
5:00 PM 24 h ago8.5 ft15 sNW65°F